Statistics Project

You are to choose a topic for your project.  It may be something related to your job or a special interest of yours.  You need to do the following things:

1. Choose a topic that you would like to use for your project.
2. Develop a hypothesis for your topic. This is some conjecture you would like to test.  You must use two continuous variables and a cause and effect
3. Collect data for your analysis. You need to have at least 50 sets of data.  You will also need to detail how you collected the data. If you intend to use a survey, it must be approved before you administer it.
4. Perform the appropriate statistical analysis on the data. This will include standard measures such as mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance, correlation coefficients and regression lines.  You will need to detail how you examined the data, i.e. grouping, sampling, etc.

5. Create the appropriate diagram(s). This would include histograms, special distributions, etc. You must include a scatter diagram and fitted line plot.
6. Test your hypothesis. This would include indication of the type of distribution, linear regression testing, confidence level of your conclusion, basic statistics, etc.
7. Write up your results. You need to submit the final project that includes all documentation, diagrams, computer printouts, data, survey, etc. You need to state why you chose the tests or analysis that you used.  It is important that state your hypothesis and conclusion in the final project.

 
POINT VALUE: TOTAL                 100 points
Hypothesis                                          10
Data                                                    15
Appropriate Diagrams                     25
Statistical Analysis                             25
Written Summary                             25
An Example of a Topic for the project
This Report will examine the hypothesis that there is a positive correlation between Sat Verbal score and High School GPA.  Data was collected from the Focus database that accompanies the textbook for this course.  The analysis will include charts and diagrams, regression analysis and formal significance testing.
The data was collected from Arizona State students.  Five hundred observations of data were collected, gathering seven different variables for each observation.  Those variables were sex, high school GPA, Sat math score, cumulative GPA, SAT verbal score, age and total hours earned.
A scatter diagram on SAT verbal score and high school GPA indicates that there may be a correlation, but probably not a very strong one.  The regression analysis gives a regression equation of HSPGA = 2.30485 + 0.00158 SATV.  The coefficient of determination, r²  = 7.0 %.  This indicates that only 7 percent of the data can explained by the regression line.  This is not a very good percentage.
The correlation coefficient is .264.  This value is relatively close to zero, which indicates that there really is not a correlation between SAT verbal score and high school GPA.  At the a  = .05 significance level, the test correlation coefficient is .31 and at the a  = .01 the test correlation is .42.  Since there were 500 observations examined.  The results are significant.
A histogram on the high school GPA indicated that most of the students had a high school GPA of 3.0 or higher.  The mean for high school GPA was 3.0271 and the median was 3.0.  The standard deviation on high school GPA was .4981.
For SAT verbal score the median was 450 and the mean was 455.88.   The standard deviation was 82.93.  The histogram on SAT verbal indicated more of the students were in the range of 400 – 450, which is not very good.
The analysis done in this report indicates that there is no correlation between high school GPA and SAT verbal score.  The linear regression indicated that only 7 % of the data is be explained by the regression line and 93% of that data is unexplained.   The scatter diagram shows no real correlation.  From this analysis, the relationship between high school GPA and SAT verbal score cannot be determined.  Analysis of correlation on high school GPA predicting SAT Verbal score should be done.

Statistical Data
Refer to Major Assignment 3 attachments (Major Assignment 3, Major Assignment 3 Details, and
Country List).
Research the country using The World Factbook found on the Central Intelligence Agency
website at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/, other resources such as
the U.S. Department of State website at https://www.state.gov/travel/, and the GCU Library.
Include three or more scholarly resources, including the textbook and The World Factbook.
Use the Country List to help you complete Major Assignment 3.
Prepare this assignment according to the guidelines found in the GCU Style Guides and
Templates, located in the Student Success Center.
This assignment uses a rubric. Review the rubric prior to beginning the assignment to become
familiar with the expectations for successful completion.

Overview:

You and some of your friends want to travel to another country to provide aid in the form of a mission trip. You have been chosen as the team leader, and your job is to provide a plan for the trip, including a financial plan. This is a big job, and you want to do it right, so you and your team have agreed that the trip will take place 5 years from now.

Requirements for the trip:

Who: You and 5-10 other individuals will travel to provide aid.
When: 5 years in the future. The trip will last 2-4 weeks. This is not a large scale, so you should think carefully about what you can accomplish with a team of this size and time frame.
What: This trip’s main purpose will be to fill some sort of tangible need to improve the day-to-day life of the people you meet. Therefore, your first job will be to decide what your team has to offer and to find a location where there is a need for your talents. You should think about what you can do to alleviate human suffering by working in an area of education, health care, basic supplies (such as clothing or home goods), housing, food or clean water, or work to repair the local environment. If you want to include evangelism as a secondary goal, that is fine, but the criteria you will be graded on is how you make a difference in the day-to-day lives of the people you work with.
Where: You will travel overseas. To keep your project manageable, you must choose one of the locations on the Country List, which is included as an attachment to this assignment. Because of the size of the team and your time frame, you should narrow down your area within the country to fit your project. For example, you can’t expect to provide vaccines to the entire country of Brazil, but you could reasonably expect to provide this service to a small town in the country. So you will need to find an area within your chosen country to focus on. The people that you serve in this area are members of your target population.

Requirements for the assignment:

This assignment will have two parts.
Part 1: You create a PowerPoint presentation describing the trip and explaining why the specific country has been chosen. The presentation should have a minimum of eight slides – a title slide, one for each category below, and a reference slide. All important information should be on the face of the slides but you can submit speaker notes for greater detail. In addition, you will need a minimum of three scholarly resources (see the resource list below for ideas) and the presentation should address the following areas:

1. An overview of your purpose for the project: Where are going, and what service will you be providing? Remember, evangelism cannot be the sole purpose of your trip or even the primary purpose.
2. Cultural and social aspects of the country and its population that led you to choose this area of the world.
3. How your choice of project works toward fulfillment of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic ideal to love your neighbor as yourself: How does your personal worldview and the possible worldviews of your target population influence your plans for the trip?
4. Information about your target population: Who are you planning to serve? How does this population compare to the population of the country as a whole? You will also need to do a calculation to project either the general or the target population in 5 years in the spreadsheet but it does not need to be discussed in the presentation. The World Factbook provides population growth data to help you here.
5. Information about the economic situation in your country and how your project will improve this.
6. Possible concerns that you need to keep in mind to keep your team and your target population safe. This could be safety from violence or from health problems (for example, will your team need inoculations to travel to the country).

Part 2: A financial plan for your trip, which you will include in the provided Excel spreadsheet. Your financial plan needs to include the following information:

1. A list of expenses for all members of your trip. This must include the following:
   1. Travel expenses, such as plane or bus fare, passports/visas, local travel within the country. Plane fare can be in U.S. dollars, but the local travel will need to be in the local currency of the country you visit.
   2. Lodging expenses. If you plan to camp, you will include expenses for your camping gear. If you are planning to stay with a host church or host family, you should research the cost of lodging in your target area and provide a per diem donation that is commensurate with the local lodging rates. This will be in the local currency.
   3. Food expenses while you are overseas. Again, if you are being fed by local residents, you will research the approximate cost to feed your group and provide a per diem donation to cover expenses. One way to do this is to research cost of living in your country to find out what a local family would expect to budget to pay for food. Again, these costs will be in the local currency.
   4. Supplies for your project. Provide at least four items that you will need to complete your project. Depending on the nature of your project, these might be in U.S. dollars, or in the local currency, or they may be a mix.
   5. For your expenses that are given in the local currency, a conversion to U.S. dollars.
   6. For each expense, you will use the CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to calculate your estimated expense 5 years in the future.
   7. A grand total of all projected expenses 5 years from now.
2. Funding sources for your trip.
   1. Sponsorship: You are going to assume that you can find a sponsor who can provide 30% of your grand total of all expenses for seed money, and you will invest that money in a savings account for the next 5 years. Research current savings rates and calculate what this amount will grow to over the next 5 years.
   2. Savings: Your team will work on various fundraisers to save for the trip, and you estimate that you can raise $100 a month every month over the next 5 years, which you will also put into a savings account. Using the savings rates you found in part a., calculate what these regular savings amounts will grow to over the next 5 years.
   3. Loan: If your sponsorship and savings totals do not cover your expenses, then you will need to take out a loan for the remainder of your expenses. Even if your sponsorship and savings total do cover all expenses, then you will take out a $10,000 loan for an additional emergency cushion. Research loan rates from two banks, and calculate the monthly payment, total that you pay back to the bank and total interest you will pay for each loan. You will indicate in the spreadsheet which of the two loans is a better choice for you and your reasons why.

Resources

You should plan to use the following resources to help you with your plan. You can also use other resources, but at a minimum, you will need the Excel Budget Spreadsheet, BLS CPI data, and CIA World Factbook. Additionally, your paper requires three scholarly sources.

• Country list.docx: Includes the list of countries you are allowed to choose from for this project, along with some important facts about the country’s make up.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Data information: https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu which is the same as on Worksheet 2.
• CIA World Fact Book: You must use this source. You will find that it contains a wealth of demographic, economic, and cultural information about your country. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
• S. Department of State website: This site will give you important information about your country, as well as information about travel overseas. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages.html
• Excel Budget Spreadsheet: Attached to the assignment directions, and provides a compact way to explain your budget and funding.
• Your course textbook
• GCU Library

Tips and formulas:

• This assignment uses a rubric. Please be sure to look at the grading criteria and point values for each area of the rubric to see how you will be graded on this assignment.
• Compound interest formula (also called the Lump Sum Investment formula) formatted for EXCEL: A = P * ((1 + r/n)^(n * t).
  • A is the accrued amount after t years that the principal, P, grows to at interest rate, r%, compounded n times each year.
• Regular payments formula (also called the Savings Plan formula) formatted for EXCEL: A = PMT * ((1 + r/n)^(n * t)-1)/(r/n).
  • A is the accrued amount after t years of making regular payments, PMT, into an account at interest rate, r%, compounded n times each year.
• Loan payment formula formatted for EXCEL: PMT = P * (r/n)/(1 – (1 + r/n)^(-n*t)).
  • PMT is the payment required to pay off a loan of $P at interest rate, r%, compounded n times per year for t
• Percent change IR = (new CPI – old CPI)/old CPI where IR is inflation rate.

Correlation-Regression Activity
Summer Break
Summer Break is coming and it’s time to make your plans. Below is a list of possible destinations for your trip. Give the following information to assist in planning your trip and finding the information needed for this project.

1. You are leaving from Chicago____________________
2. Date of departure _9^th July, 2020___It is flexible
3. Date of return ___16^th July, 2020__ It is flexible

You are to use the Internet to search for the lowest airfares from your town to the destination on the given dates and find the distance from your airport to that city.

4. Complete the following table of information for your Summer Break adventure. The cost is for one person on a roundtrip ticket. A maximum of two stops in route is allowed, for both directions of the trip.

5. The Airline names and Flight Numbers are NOT NECESSARY, you can put them for your own benefit.

 
List the Web sites that you use for your search:
DISTANCES : 1) http://www.webflyer.com/travel/mileage_calculator/    OR
                          2) Use Google….type ‘Chicago to Miami air distance’ and you will get the distance…2394 miles
AIRFARES : expedia.com;Travelocity.com; One Travel.com; Google Flights, or a site preferred by YOU.
 
 

5. Make a scatter plot of the distance versus cost. Use the distance as the independent variable on the horizontal axis. Make appropriate scales for the axes.

6. Look at the scatterplot to answer the following: How is the cost of the trip associated with the distance of the trip?

7. On a scale of 0 to 1, how good does the line fit the data? 0 = no fit and 1 = a perfect fit. Give your estimation of ‘r’.

8. Find the value of the correlation coefficient (r) for the data. Compare it to the value of the correlation coefficient that you guessed. How close were you?

9. Sketch the best-fit line on the scatterplot above by hand and compare it to the line that you got from the graph. Are they close?

10. Enter the data for the distances and the costs on Minitab to find y = a + bx; the equation of the least-squares regression line.

• Write the equation in terms of relationship between travel distance and ticket cost.  Are there any outliers?  What do they tell us?
• Report the coefficient of determination (R-sq) value in terms of %.  Is it closer to 100%? 50%? 0%?  Based on the percentage value how much can you TRUST the PREDICTION of the future value.
• By looking at the scatterplot and the regression line find a place that is a good buy for the miles traveled. Why do you think the airfare is below the expected value for this destination?
• Talk about the LURKING VARIABLES that may be affecting the value of ‘r’.  What variables could affect the relationship between the COST and the DISTANCE?
• Use the destination identified in question 13 and any information found in this project to write a persuasive essay (50-100 words) convincing your parents/spouse to let you go to your destination of choice for Summer Break.