ARCANE Logistics: Statistics PaperARCANE Logistics 
Introduction
In this exercise, you will use various Excel functions to perform statistical analysis on data, which
will simulate the exploratory data analysis that decision modelers perform before moving on to
more sophisticated analysis. As part of this analysis, you will work with pivot tables to analyze
the behavior of subsets of the data. These fundamental techniques are essential when trying to
make sense of large data sets. Many managers confine their analysis to simple calculations of
average. But knowledge of how variables are distributed and whether or not they are strongly
associated with other variables is as much or more important.
Scenario
ARCANE Logistics is a shipping contractor located in Waco, Texas. ARCANE has a shipping
contract with Bear Industries, which operates three plants in Austin, Fort Worth, and Houston. In
the past nine months, managers at ARCANE have found that there have been an unusual
number of losses on shipments for this customer. Losses from shortage (possibly theft), spoilage
from improper handling, and damage have been reported. Although some loss is expected and
very difficult to prevent, the high number of losses this year does not look random. As a result,
ARCANE has decided to hire your loss prevention team to investigate the causes of these
losses.
Data
For this exercise, use the Shipping Data Excel file, which is located in the same folder as this
assignment.
Part 1: Spreadsheet Analysis
1. Compute correlation between each numerical variable. For this exercise, you should use the
correlation function in the data analysis package. Make sure to include date in your correlations
to identify if losses are trending over time.
2. Highlight any correlation that you think is interesting and then discuss this correlation in Part 2
below.
3. Use the descriptive statistics package in Excel to compute descriptive statistics for each of the
numerical variables in your data set.
4. Study loss behavior. How do individual drivers compare on sum of losses and frequency
(count) of losses? Does this behavior vary by loss code? How about shipping origins or destinations. Do the sum of losses and frequency of losses vary by origin and/or destination?
Use pivot tables to isolate truck drivers, origins, destinations and types of losses. Compute
relevant statistics for each. Look for patterns. Hint: Look at the screenshot below.
The following selection of pivot fields yields losses by driver as shown below.
5. Create any charts that you think would be relevant to illustrate your findings. Possible charts
include histograms, line charts, bar charts, etc. Note: if the chart you would like to create will not
work with a pivot table, copy and paste as values the pivot table to another worksheet. You will
then be able to create your chart from this data.

Statistical Data
Refer to Major Assignment 3 attachments (Major Assignment 3, Major Assignment 3 Details, and
Country List).
Research the country using The World Factbook found on the Central Intelligence Agency
website at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/, other resources such as
the U.S. Department of State website at https://www.state.gov/travel/, and the GCU Library.
Include three or more scholarly resources, including the textbook and The World Factbook.
Use the Country List to help you complete Major Assignment 3.
Prepare this assignment according to the guidelines found in the GCU Style Guides and
Templates, located in the Student Success Center.
This assignment uses a rubric. Review the rubric prior to beginning the assignment to become
familiar with the expectations for successful completion.

Overview:

You and some of your friends want to travel to another country to provide aid in the form of a mission trip. You have been chosen as the team leader, and your job is to provide a plan for the trip, including a financial plan. This is a big job, and you want to do it right, so you and your team have agreed that the trip will take place 5 years from now.

Requirements for the trip:

Who: You and 5-10 other individuals will travel to provide aid.
When: 5 years in the future. The trip will last 2-4 weeks. This is not a large scale, so you should think carefully about what you can accomplish with a team of this size and time frame.
What: This trip’s main purpose will be to fill some sort of tangible need to improve the day-to-day life of the people you meet. Therefore, your first job will be to decide what your team has to offer and to find a location where there is a need for your talents. You should think about what you can do to alleviate human suffering by working in an area of education, health care, basic supplies (such as clothing or home goods), housing, food or clean water, or work to repair the local environment. If you want to include evangelism as a secondary goal, that is fine, but the criteria you will be graded on is how you make a difference in the day-to-day lives of the people you work with.
Where: You will travel overseas. To keep your project manageable, you must choose one of the locations on the Country List, which is included as an attachment to this assignment. Because of the size of the team and your time frame, you should narrow down your area within the country to fit your project. For example, you can’t expect to provide vaccines to the entire country of Brazil, but you could reasonably expect to provide this service to a small town in the country. So you will need to find an area within your chosen country to focus on. The people that you serve in this area are members of your target population.

Requirements for the assignment:

This assignment will have two parts.
Part 1: You create a PowerPoint presentation describing the trip and explaining why the specific country has been chosen. The presentation should have a minimum of eight slides – a title slide, one for each category below, and a reference slide. All important information should be on the face of the slides but you can submit speaker notes for greater detail. In addition, you will need a minimum of three scholarly resources (see the resource list below for ideas) and the presentation should address the following areas:

1. An overview of your purpose for the project: Where are going, and what service will you be providing? Remember, evangelism cannot be the sole purpose of your trip or even the primary purpose.
2. Cultural and social aspects of the country and its population that led you to choose this area of the world.
3. How your choice of project works toward fulfillment of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic ideal to love your neighbor as yourself: How does your personal worldview and the possible worldviews of your target population influence your plans for the trip?
4. Information about your target population: Who are you planning to serve? How does this population compare to the population of the country as a whole? You will also need to do a calculation to project either the general or the target population in 5 years in the spreadsheet but it does not need to be discussed in the presentation. The World Factbook provides population growth data to help you here.
5. Information about the economic situation in your country and how your project will improve this.
6. Possible concerns that you need to keep in mind to keep your team and your target population safe. This could be safety from violence or from health problems (for example, will your team need inoculations to travel to the country).

Part 2: A financial plan for your trip, which you will include in the provided Excel spreadsheet. Your financial plan needs to include the following information:

1. A list of expenses for all members of your trip. This must include the following:
   1. Travel expenses, such as plane or bus fare, passports/visas, local travel within the country. Plane fare can be in U.S. dollars, but the local travel will need to be in the local currency of the country you visit.
   2. Lodging expenses. If you plan to camp, you will include expenses for your camping gear. If you are planning to stay with a host church or host family, you should research the cost of lodging in your target area and provide a per diem donation that is commensurate with the local lodging rates. This will be in the local currency.
   3. Food expenses while you are overseas. Again, if you are being fed by local residents, you will research the approximate cost to feed your group and provide a per diem donation to cover expenses. One way to do this is to research cost of living in your country to find out what a local family would expect to budget to pay for food. Again, these costs will be in the local currency.
   4. Supplies for your project. Provide at least four items that you will need to complete your project. Depending on the nature of your project, these might be in U.S. dollars, or in the local currency, or they may be a mix.
   5. For your expenses that are given in the local currency, a conversion to U.S. dollars.
   6. For each expense, you will use the CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to calculate your estimated expense 5 years in the future.
   7. A grand total of all projected expenses 5 years from now.
2. Funding sources for your trip.
   1. Sponsorship: You are going to assume that you can find a sponsor who can provide 30% of your grand total of all expenses for seed money, and you will invest that money in a savings account for the next 5 years. Research current savings rates and calculate what this amount will grow to over the next 5 years.
   2. Savings: Your team will work on various fundraisers to save for the trip, and you estimate that you can raise $100 a month every month over the next 5 years, which you will also put into a savings account. Using the savings rates you found in part a., calculate what these regular savings amounts will grow to over the next 5 years.
   3. Loan: If your sponsorship and savings totals do not cover your expenses, then you will need to take out a loan for the remainder of your expenses. Even if your sponsorship and savings total do cover all expenses, then you will take out a $10,000 loan for an additional emergency cushion. Research loan rates from two banks, and calculate the monthly payment, total that you pay back to the bank and total interest you will pay for each loan. You will indicate in the spreadsheet which of the two loans is a better choice for you and your reasons why.

Resources

You should plan to use the following resources to help you with your plan. You can also use other resources, but at a minimum, you will need the Excel Budget Spreadsheet, BLS CPI data, and CIA World Factbook. Additionally, your paper requires three scholarly sources.

• Country list.docx: Includes the list of countries you are allowed to choose from for this project, along with some important facts about the country’s make up.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Data information: https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu which is the same as on Worksheet 2.
• CIA World Fact Book: You must use this source. You will find that it contains a wealth of demographic, economic, and cultural information about your country. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
• S. Department of State website: This site will give you important information about your country, as well as information about travel overseas. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages.html
• Excel Budget Spreadsheet: Attached to the assignment directions, and provides a compact way to explain your budget and funding.
• Your course textbook
• GCU Library

Tips and formulas:

• This assignment uses a rubric. Please be sure to look at the grading criteria and point values for each area of the rubric to see how you will be graded on this assignment.
• Compound interest formula (also called the Lump Sum Investment formula) formatted for EXCEL: A = P * ((1 + r/n)^(n * t).
  • A is the accrued amount after t years that the principal, P, grows to at interest rate, r%, compounded n times each year.
• Regular payments formula (also called the Savings Plan formula) formatted for EXCEL: A = PMT * ((1 + r/n)^(n * t)-1)/(r/n).
  • A is the accrued amount after t years of making regular payments, PMT, into an account at interest rate, r%, compounded n times each year.
• Loan payment formula formatted for EXCEL: PMT = P * (r/n)/(1 – (1 + r/n)^(-n*t)).
  • PMT is the payment required to pay off a loan of $P at interest rate, r%, compounded n times per year for t
• Percent change IR = (new CPI – old CPI)/old CPI where IR is inflation rate.

Correlation and Bivariate Regression 
Correlation tests are some of the most widely used tests; unfortunately, they are also some of the most misinterpreted tests. The term correlation is frequently used in a colloquial sense, but has a very specific definition within the context of statistics. As a critical consumer of research, after this week you will be able to properly interpret the strengths and weaknesses of this specific test.
Perhaps the most exciting part of this week’s activities is the introduction to ordinary least squares regression. This form of linear regression is frequently referred to as the “workhorse” of the social sciences, and for good reason. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests.
In this week, you will examine correlation and bivariate regression. In your examination you will construct research questions, evaluate research design, and analyze results related to correlation and bivariate regression.
Learning Objectives

Students will:

• Construct research questions
• Evaluate research design through research questions
• Analyze correlation and bivariate regression
• Analyze measures for correlation and bivariate regression
• Analyze significance of correlation and bivariate regression
• Analyze results for correlation and bivariate regression testing
• Analyze assumptions of correlation and bivariate regression
• Analyze implications for social change
• Evaluate research related to correlation and bivariate regression

In this week’s assignment, you will explore the different types of graphs used to visualize data. Results from both Excel and SPSS should be copied and pasted into a Word document for submission.
Each graph must contain a narrative description of what it represents and an interpretation of the image. Please use the provided datasets for building these figures.

1. Pie chart
2. Bar chart
3. Scatterplot
4. Histogram

Length: 4 pages not including title page or reference page
References: Include a minimum of 2 scholarly resources. Be sure to reference Excel and SPSS as they are resources for this assignment, although not scholarly.
Your paper should demonstrate thoughtful consideration of the ideas and concepts presented in the course and provide new thoughts and insights relating directly to this topic. Your response should reflect scholarly writing and current APA standards.