Accurate forcasting

Instructions 
Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. She notes (from the office records) that hurricanes have made landfall on the coast somewhere near their city of Johnstown in the past 11 years. Monica notes that forecasted landfall has been different from actual observed landfall as shown in the table below.

How accurate has the forecast been? Do you think this difference matters to a beach town? Can you develop a forecasting system model that may be more accurate?
Explain your methodology and ideas in a paper of at least four pages. Be sure to research sources to support your ideas, and integrate the sources using APA-formatted citations and matching reference lists. Additionally, use Times New Roman 12pt. double-spaced font.